Below is a daily chart of the exchange traded fund, GLD, which follows the price of gold. According to my rules, this ETF is in a bear market, since the long term and the short term trends are both down. What this means is that I cannot consider buying gold until both trends reverse themselves, regardless of how great the fundamentals appear to be.
As a trend following speculator, I have no idea where gold will go next. My job is to simply analyze the present and react to what is currently going on.