Being skeptical, but curious I decided to open a micro Forex account to test the system with real money. The system is 100% mechanical (but not automated) and I have been strictly following the rules of this system since December. Since that time, the system has generated 52 trades, which I have diligently recorded in this spreadsheet.
Although 52 trades is not a large enough sample size to draw any meaningful conclusions on, the results so far have been even better than what the backtesting suggested.
Paradoxically, 75% of the trades lost money, but despite that, the system generated +25.23R in 4 months, which would translate to a 50.46% return if one bet 2% per trade.
The system uses Donchian channel breakouts, similar to what the original turtle traders used, to generate trading signals. Specifically, the system benefited from the plunge in the Japanese Yen, and big moves in the Euro, Silver, and the British Pound.
Below is an example of a trade generated using a 20 day Donchian breakout system on the Japanese Yen:
I have to admit that I may have gotten lucky starting this trading system at the time that I did and I know that the system would have done poorly, for example, this time last year. However, I will gradually deploy more capital into this account and continue to document the results of this system.
